Industry analysts predicted the collapse of U.S. commercial real estate but it never materialized in reality. Of course, the market is just coming out of an economic downturn. Recently, a Federal Reserve executive told a congressional committee that commercial real estate was close to bottom.
Yet an even greater crisis had been predicted by many observers. It was believed that commercial real estate would fall, drag the economy back to a recession, and cause a catastrophe in the banks. Indeed much to the surprise of many people, commercial real estate is on the rebound.
Overall Recovery
Although the positive trend can be seen across the country, it picks up steam in major centers like New York City. Overall, the commercial real estate market looks promising but there are pockets of distress. As well, the market is far below its 2007 peak.
Underlying market fundamentals are reaching a stabilized state. At the end of 2010, vacancy rates were not increasing in office, industrial, and retail sectors. Although vacancy levels were elevated to varying degrees (13%-16%), sales of commercial real estate improved in every quarter of 2010.
CB Richard Ellis in Los Angeles, the world's largest commercial property brokerage, reported double-digit fourth-quarter gains in all its global business lines except real estate development services. Bricks & Mortar Capital President, Craig Silvers, explained that improving economies in the United States and Asia have more companies taking action on real estate matters. In fact, Silvers suggests that companies are trying to "lock in real estate leases or buy property before prices get out of control."
Financial Stress
If lenders concentrated their efforts in commercial real estate, they may feel more than a little stress. Keep in mind that $3.4 trillion is outstanding on real estate loans. Plenty of defaults will mean a ton of foreclosures. Almost 1,300 small banks nationwide hold a considerable number of commercial real estate loans.
Yet a top Federal Reserve official, Patrick Parkinson, played down any worries. He believes that bank struggles will not be as grave as earlier predictions. Commercial real estate will not be the downfall of U.S. banks.
Future Issues
It is possible though that there could be difficulties in the future. Present loans will mature and need rolling over, therefore, putting banks under strain. Most commercial mortgages have shorter maturities (three-ten years) than those offered by banks for residential loans. In addition, commercial loans are structured so that they are 'rolled over' instead of being repaid during the life of the agreement.
No Threat
Commercial loans are not a huge threat to big banks. No doubt, the market is dragging a little. A few financial institutions hold large portfolios of mortgage-backed securities. Yet already, they have taken huge write-downs on them.
"While we expect significant ongoing CRE-related problems, it appears that worst-case scenarios are becoming increasingly unlikely," says Patrick Parkinson, the Federal Director of banking supervision and regulation.
Do You Have Confidence In The U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market?
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