Real Estate Recovery

The football team whose city has the most commercial real estate vacancies will win the Super Bowl. That is the prediction of Roger Staubach who led the Dallas Cowboys to two Super Bowl victories in 1972 and 1978. At present, Staubach is the Americas executive chairman for Jones Lang LaSalle - a global financial and professional services company specializing in real estate. Based on his expertise and experience in sports and property, the former-football-player-turned real-estate-executive stands by his belief.

“As a student of both football and commercial real estate, I can tell you that this vacancy rate hypothesis is absolutely the real deal. When it comes to picking a winner, you can throw everything else out the window,” says Roger Staubach, the Americas executive chairman for Jones Lang LaSalle.

Social and Economic Impact

Staubach and his son Jeff (a senior vice president at Jones Lang LaSalle) have been blogging about Super Bowl XLV and throwing a bit of real estate into the mix. Whether or not you give credence to the prediction, the Super Bowl does have a social and economic impact on the city that holds the event. Actually in 2010, the Staubach team launched "Countdown to the Super Bowl: The Economic and Social Impacts for North Texas." Staubach chaired the bid to hold the event in North Texas.

Financial Giant

Jones Lang LaSalle has stayed in the background as Staubach shares his predictions. The global financial firm has not offered any explanation about the connection between commercial real estate and Super Bowl wins. Of course, real estate predictions can be based on anything from a crystal ball to empirical research. Yet it is doubtful that Jones Lang LaSalle favors the crystal ball method. The professional services company is more the 'trends and statistics' type who would favor scientific methods.

Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels handles major financial announcements. The group forecast the 2011 deal volume (US $13 billion) in the Americas. The team figured out that REITs would be among the most active buyers with total volume for 2010 expected to be US $10.5 billion.

Winning Prediction

Not surprisingly, Jones Lang LaSalle has not weighed in to any great extent on the 'winning' prediction. Apparently though, the company has no objection to their executive chairman for the Americas claiming that his prediction is the "real deal." Maybe Jones Lang La Salle and Roger Staubach are smart enough to know that they are the winners getting the real deal.

We can predict that the 'prediction' is great publicity. According to the NFL, 65% of Super Bowl attendees are corporate executives. The group could include executives who might buy office space in the city or even relocate their headquarters. After these predictions, they will remember the names of Roger Staubach and Jones Lang LaSalle.

Who Will Win The Super Bowl?

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers Sunday - February 6, 2011

According to Staubach's theory, the Green Bay Packers will win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Green Bay's commercial vacancy rate is 18.9% but Pittsburgh has one of the lowest office vacancy rates in the US – just 12.1%.

And Yet Another Interesting Fact…

Since 2002, almost two thirds of Super Bowl wins have gone to the city with the most office space vacancies.

Super Bowl winner predicted by analyzing commercial real estate vacancy rates

Who Do You Think Will Win Super Bowl XLV?

Image courtesy of alahlymobasher.com

2011 is shaping up to be the "Year of The Landlord." As many people face the winter winds, we are reminded of a wise old saying.

"It's an ill wind that blows no good." ~ John Heywood (1497-1580)

In the case of the winds of change in real estate, falling house prices and slow sales have challenged many sellers but benefited more than a few apartment building landlords. More people are choosing to rent but others can find no suitable alternative to apartment living. Everyone has their own reason for deciding to rent property rather than buy a home.

Rent or Own

Sometimes renting is the best choice for an individual. Indeed, many renters prefer the apartment lifestyle. After all, renting a luxurious NYC condo does not seem like such a bad deal. Even renting any apartment has its perks such as more flexibility in relocation and less maintenance responsibilities.

Of course, other renters would sooner own a home. Often foreclosure forces homeowners to become renters. Sometimes potential first-time buyers discover that they cannot afford the financial commitment of a home. The Federal First-Time Homebuyers' Tax Credit is no more and not everyone has an "angel investor."

Whether people choose to rent or have no other choice, landlords are gaining tenants. Banks and lenders are also smiling – especially if the apartment building owner had been previously under financial duress. Borrowing has become less expensive with low interest rates.

This effect is noticed with commercial real estate of all types. The low rates have a positive effect on borrowing for office buildings, retail outlets, and company warehouses. The apartment market, however, is the healthiest of the commercial categories – mainly because of cheap financing.

Investing in Apartments

Obviously, investors are interested in apartment buildings. Actually, 'flipping' properties is coming into vogue again. The practice of reselling quickly for profit is somewhat prevalent at all times.

Yet 'flipping' is as popular now as in earlier thriving economic periods. This practice can have its place - if done responsibly for the right reasons. Illegal flipping, however, is a different matter. It involves scams, disregard for others, and a goal of profit at any cost.

Higher Values

Apartment building values have risen to levels not seen since the middle of 2007. According to the brokerage firm Marcus & Millichap, values of apartment buildings rose 16% in 2010. Green Street Advisors, a research company tracking REITs, say that present values are now within 10% of their 2007 peak value.

Of course, apartment values in major centers such as New York and Washington, D.C., have shown signs of recovery since 2009. Currently, increasing apartment values can be seen in additional markets including Los Angeles and Seattle as well as other U.S. cities. At the end of 2010, TIAA-CREF paid $62 million for the 261-unit Newbury Commons in Stamford, Connecticut. According to Real Capital Analytics, this sale price was 65% more than the amount paid by Seaboard Properties in February 2009.

Apparently, even Las Vegas is seeing the high values. Keep in mind that Las Vegas was affected greatly by the economic downturn. Yet in December 2010, the Croix Townhomes complex in the Las Vegas Henderson suburb sold for nearly $20 million - $143,000 for each unit – a price even far above the national average. The 'apartment advantage' might be the start of the next big trend in investment property.

Housing Woes Fuel Apartment Surge

Will 2011 Continue To Be The "Year Of The Landlord?"

Image courtesy of architecturelist.com

Most likely, the majority of real estate predictions fall somewhere in the middle - based on more than a crystal ball and less than empirical research. Maybe there might be one or two people who put predictions out there without any thought. Yet most real estate predictions are the result of studying trends and statistics.

Accurate Predictions

Apparently, a few of these predictions can have a high accuracy rate. For example, the Globe and Mail has tallied the score for predictions made by Neil Downey, RBC Dominion Securities analyst. Downey offered five predictions for 2011. Before the end of January, three predictions have become reality.

The Globe and Mail's story is titled – "The real-estate crystal ball." Probably, careful observations are responsible for these impressive results. No crystal ball here; maybe though a little luck, too!

Which Correct Predictions Did The Analyst Make About Canadian Real Estate?

• Richard Baker, the New York investor who bought Hudson's Bay Company, is ready to close a $2-billion deal bringing Target Corp. into Canada.

• RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust is looking for funding of its acquisition plan as well as refinancing for outstanding debt. Recently, REIT hit the market with rate reset preferred shares and senior unsecured debt.

• Canada's commercial mortgage-backed securities market is making a rebound. Two major real estate companies are tapping the market for $206 million – the first deal of this type since 2007. 

As well, Downey predicted more TSX-listed REITs at the end of 2011 than the beginning and less equity raising activity. The Globe and Mail is waiting to see if these two predictions will come to light.

Core Predictions

Real estate predictions are a serious business. The real estate industry is at the core of an economy. Home buyers account for a huge percentage of economic activity. Commercial real estate involves three main categories - retail (stores, malls), industrial (factories, warehouses), and commercial (offices, multi-dwelling buildings).

Real estate transactions are handled by brokers and agents. Certain agents offer property management services to businesses. When entrepreneurs are doing well, real estate transactions experience an increase. In a poor economy, realtors help businesses to find the best location and affordable facilities.

Empirical Research

Empirical research (such as Plotkin 2002) has been conducted about the role of real estate in an economy. The "first major empirical nonfinancial ratio business success versus failure prediction model" was applied to the real estate industry in New England. The purpose of this study was to develop and test a nonfinancial model that would predict real estate business success or failure using the Lussier (1995) prediction model.

'Lussier' was selected for the study because it had been published in more journals than any other model. The study suggested that similar methodology be used to conduct studies in other parts of the US as well as in other countries. Real science here – far more than a crystal ball!

A Success Versus Failure Prediction Model for the Real Estate Industry

How Have You Arrived At Your Real Estate Predictions?

Image courtesy of adrworks.com

It is probably not just a coincidence that renowned architect, Richard Meier, designed twin towers near New York City's waterfront. The luxurious apartment buildings were built in 2002 – a year after the World Trade Center disaster. The construction period coincided with a time in which New York City was searching for renewed hope. In fact, Meier admitted that he wanted to bring life back to the area.

Not A Twin

No doubt the two tall Perry Street towers and their location at 173 Perry Street and 176 Perry Street evoked mixed emotions. Yet in reality, the Perry Street Towers cannot be called "twins." The façade on the north tower is not as broad as the west façade on the southern tower.

Of course, the high 'tower design' is not a rarity in the Big Apple – especially in the years since the fall of the World Trade Centre. Obviously, the award-winning designer of these two structures was not just using a similar tower design to attract attention. Richard Meier is an acclaimed architect – a winner of the prestigious Pritzker Prize. He has been responsible for well-known designs from the Getty Center in Los Angeles to the White Plaza in Switzerland. In 2004, Meier designed 165 Charles Street facing the Hudson River - a similar apartment tower to the Perry Street Towers.

Innovative Design

173 and 176 Perry Street are able to grab attention on their own. With their sharp lines and grids, the towers stand out from other structures. The buildings have floor-to-ceiling windows with white steel protruding slightly beyond the structure and green-glass balconies. A Perry Street tower does not just fade into the background. The buildings provide dramatic contrast to the city's older low red brick buildings - another well-known design element in NYC.

In fact, more than one famous personality has discovered the Perry Street Towers and set up residence in this innovative structure. Martha Stewart, Calvin Klein, and NBC Universal President, Michael Jackson have lived in these cutting edge towers. With 11' ceilings, residents have spectacular views of Manhattan, the New Jersey riverfront, and Hudson River.

Luxury Market

Located in West Village, 173 Perry Street has 16 floors and just 16 apartments offering an entire floor as a private oasis. Residents can enjoy concierge service and a first-class fitness center as well as all the usual perks of luxury real estate. If you plan on moving into one of these opulent towers, be advised that a 11,000 sq ft, 5-bedroom, 5.2 bathroom apartment is reported to cost $34,000,000. In a previous real estate report, 176 Perry Street was listed as one of New York City's 20 most expensive apartments. 173 Perry Street was named as one of the top three new residential buildings of the decade.

Dining in Luxury

Yet it is possible for people to get an inside look at these buildings. The South Tower has a 150-seat Jean-Georges Vongerichten restaurant on ground level that is open to the public. Diners can enter by West Street via a bridge spanning a reflecting pool.

Do You Prefer Modern Tower Designs Or Older and Lower NYC Structures?

Image courtesy of gothamist.com

Let's face facts! When someone is thinking about buying a home, they are more interested in the news about local real estate than global real estate trends. They care about the price of the house across town. Interested buyers pay less attention to long-term predictions or the housing market in another state.

The buyer has eyes only for the dream home around the corner. Yet the truth is that the overall picture affects that dream as well as the future reality for the new homeowner. Housing markets differ but they do not exist in isolation.

Local markets are affected by external influences. Therefore, potential home buyers should arm themselves with detailed information about real estate conditions. Of course, a great deal of that data should focus on the state of local real estate.

Various organizations in different states release real estate information organized from data at regional multiple listing services. As well, housing reports are available based on data collected from county governments. Yet current statistics have to be always examined with care. Today's numbers can tell a different story if looked at in comparison to a previous period.

What Is The State Of Local Housing Markets?

California

According to the California Association of Realtors, the housing market in the Golden State recorded a 5.9% rise in sales from November-December 2010. Yet year over year, the number of transactions fell 6.8%. The median price for an existing single-family home in the state was $301,850 - up 1.7% during December - but down 1.6% from the same month in 2009.

California home sales rose in December but dragged slowly earlier in the year – especially after the expiry of the Federal First-Time Homebuyers' Credit. Within certain areas of California such as the Santa Clara Valley, median home prices were flat in 2010. Other parts of the state experienced a drop in house prices. Los Angeles, Orange County, Sacramento, and Santa Cruz County experienced a decline.

The San Francisco Bay Area and High Desert regions had median gains. Regarding sale prices, three Silicon Valley communities received top ten ranking during December 2010. Los Altos made the list with median sale prices at $1.3 million, Cupertino at $904,500, and Los Gatos was at $840,000.

The Best And Worst Cities For Home Values In 2011

Florida

The Florida Realtors Association has just released the final figures for home sales in 2010. Within Florida, local real estate results were a mix of increases and declines. Overall, sales of single-family existing homes and condos were up but prices took a fall.

Yet conditions varied drastically from one location to another. Across the state, home sales increased by five per cent. The biggest gain was in Ft. Walton Beach – a rise of 7 % - while the largest drop was in Panama City – a drop of seven per cent.

In 2010, the median sales price for a Florida home decreased 4% from 2009 figures. House prices in the four major regional markets in Florida stayed near the average. Once again, Panama City was the exception – with a 9% decrease. As you browse through the headlines about local real estate, you will discover that each page can tell a different story.

Florida And The Local Real Estate Mixed Results for the Year

What Is The State Of Real Estate In Your Local Area?

Image courtesy of realestateblackbook.com

Many U.S. home sellers saw dollars vanish in front of their eyes during the past year. Although the vanishing act was really an illusion as the money never existed – except in an over-zealous home seller's mind. Pricing homes outside the realm of reality holds no magic; it just ends with disappointed sellers. All the dollars disappear because home buyers move on to another dream (and price) within their reach.

During the past year, no home sellers (upscale residence or small house) were exempt from price reductions. According to the Washington Post, Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson had to reduce the asking price for his Washington, DC home. In 2010, the property sold for almost one-third less than the original asking price. The buyer paid $3.25 billion. During 2006, Paulsen had paid $4.3 million for the property.

Chicago Home Sellers

Between March-December 2010, Chicago home sellers saw a widening divide between their preferred price and the actual amount of the home sale. The Chicago Agent magazine examined monthly data for Cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, and Will counties. The price reductions endured by sellers were calculated at $459 million a month.

Despite the size of the area, Cook County sellers led other counties in their average number of reductions (17,335) per month. As well, this county had the biggest cuts (percentage-wise) – almost 6% ($16,000) every time they lowered asking prices. Du Page County ranked second with 3,583 reductions (4.4%).

Chicago Home Buyers

Of course, Chicago home buyers were pleased with the reduced prices. Yet a few home buyers still paid a fine sum for their dream homes.

Chicago's Most Expensive Houses

            • $7.75 million - Barrington Hills (McHenry County)

            • $5.99 million - Lake Forest (Lake County)

            • $4.1 million - Hinsdale (DuPage County)

            • $2.99 million - St. Charles (Kane County)

Chicago's Most Expensive Condos

11 E. Walton Street

Three Condos

            •$7.4 million

            •$6.88 million

            •$6.28 million

Real estate mantra in 2010: How low can you go?

UK Home Sales

The current state of home sale prices varies from market to market. The average price of a home in England and Wales fell 0.2% to 222,827 pounds ($354,000) from November-December, 2010. Many UK home sellers do not want to be involved in transactions in this market. Many UK home buyers cannot get a mortgage. An Acadametrics report showed the number of transactions dropped by 53,000 (approx) in December 2010 – a 33% decline from the same period in 2009.

U.K. House Prices Decline for Third Month as Lenders Restrict Mortgages

What Do Consumers Predict For Home Prices In 2011?

The Chicago Agent magazine asked its readers for their predictions. At least 54% said that housing prices would remain the same as in the past year. Thirty one per cent of responses expected a decline of home sale prices in the coming months.

No doubt, within Chicago and elsewhere, home buyers are hoping for continued price reductions. Of course, home sellers always wish for higher prices. At least 15% of respondents to the magazine survey expected home sellers in 2011 would be getting better prices.

What Are Your Predictions For Home Prices In 2011?

Image courtesy of viewsandpreviews.com

When developer Ian Schrager, co-creator of boutique hotels, and his partners asked the renowned architectural firm, Herzog & de Meuron, to design 40 Bond Street in New York City, they were choosing a top team. This prestigious firm had designed the Tate Modern Museum in London, the main stadium for the Olympic Games in Beijing, as well as other world-class projects. Schrager made one more top decision.

"I'm taking the penthouse," says Schrager.

Luxury Penthouses

No doubt, building owners and co-owners can have the first chance to live in the luxurious penthouses. Most owners of luxury real estate position themselves at the top. Take Donald Trump and Trump Tower – another co-developer who took the opportunity to occupy an opulent penthouse. Do you ever wonder what life is like at the top?

40 Bond Street

The penthouse at 40 Bond Street makes a sizable impression and comes with a big price tag – a reported $18.5 million. That chunk of cash will get you 6,626 square feet of interior space and 3,529 square feet of exterior space. Of course, you could choose a smaller 3-bedroom apartment for $9,950,000. You could even choose a 2-bedroom unit for the more affordable price of $4,850,000.

Interiors

The apartments at 40 Bond Street have all kinds of luxurious features - Austrian smoked oak floors, Italian cabinets with smoked oak and high gloss lacquer, as well as Glacier White Corian walls, and shower floor with embossed graffiti pattern. 40 Bond Street was designed to reflect a version of SoHo commercial loft buildings. The building uses a green glass grid instead of cast iron.

Boomer hotel icon Ian Schrager is far from done

Trump Tower

Donald Trump chose an office and a penthouse in Trump Tower at 721 Fifth Avenue. Angelo Donghia designed this elegant penthouse. Even from the outside, Trump Tower is no ordinary building. Its unique look and unusual layout make an innovative statement.

Interiors

Donald Trump continues to express his individuality with his choice of detailing. From the inlaid Trump Tower seal on the ramp of the entrance to 'T' stanchions and vitrines, it is hard to miss the 'Trump' connection. Developers of luxury properties tend to make their mark with extravagant buildings.

Trump Tower is full of elaborate details. Its 100-foot high atrium features a seven-storey waterfall in front of Breccia Perniche marble in gorgeous colors – peach and orange - pink and rose. Polished granite walls and brass vitrines add an extra glow.

Trump Burns Mortgage At Trump Tower

NYC Penthouses

Life at the top might cost a fair penny but many buyers are willing to pay the price for a luxurious lifestyle. Of course, if you own (or co-own) the building, occupying the penthouse makes it a more probable and personal choice. Yet developers are not the only buyers wanting to move into penthouse apartments.

Despite the recent downturn in the economy, the U.S. luxury real estate market is rebounding in fast order. Upscale markets tend to make a fast recovery from economic woes. Luxury property is seen as a smart investment in the long term.

Luxurious residences and hotels do well in major centers like New York City. Ask Ian Schrager. He just started Schrager Hotels and created two new hotel brands – one luxury model - and one less expensive brand - for those of us who can't afford the penthouse suite.

What Would Be The Best Thing About Living In A Luxury Penthouse?

Image courtesy of bilgenozturk.blogspot.com

When it comes to promoting economic recovery, the Federal Reserve is not acting in a 'reserved' manner. The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank has a definite plan and defining purpose.

Plan

The FOMC (committee responsible for setting monetary policy) plans to purchase $600 billion in Treasury securities.

Purpose

Encourage economic growth and keep long-term interest rates at a low level.

Reason

The Federal Reserve wants to speed up the process of economic recovery. No doubt, there have been sure signs of improvement. During the third quarter of 2010, consumer spending rose at an annual rate of 2-1/2%.

More businesses also invested in new software and equipment towards year-end. Of course, the statistics have to be looked at in a realistic light. Spending and investment is 'up' compared to the activity in recent 'down' periods.

Yet small gains can be indication of big things in the future. Issues like high unemployment, however, do not disappear from the radar overnight. It could take four or five years for employment rates to return to a normal scale.

Only 103,000 U.S. jobs were created in December 2010 – less than the 150,000 expected for that period. With its pending bond purchase by the end of the second quarter in 2011, the Federal Reserve hopes to encourage economic growth. In fact, a drop in the jobless rate is expected – almost 9% by the end of 2011 – but it will stay above 8% throughout 2012.

Housing Market

On January 7, 2011, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke gave his report (The Economic Outlook and Monetary and Fiscal Policy) before the Committee on the Budget in the U.S. Senate. The overall message in the report was that the economy would be somewhat stronger in 2011. Yet Bernanke referred to challenges in the housing market.

"However, the housing sector remains depressed, as the overhang of vacant houses continues to weigh heavily on both home prices and construction, and nonresidential construction is also quite weak," says Chairman Ben S. Bernanke before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.

The Federal Reserve has reason to worry about the state of the housing market. Three main factors can cause an economic recovery to lose steam. Damage to the credit market and regulatory and tax uncertainty problems can pose danger to an economy on the rebound. As well, problems in the housing market are stumbling blocks in a recovering economy.

Cautious Optimism

Yet there has been an increase in pending and new home sales. The rise amounted to 3.5% in November. These figures were influenced by a flurry of sales (18.2%) in the West. The National Association of Realtors chief economist, Lawrence Yun, explained how 2,000,000 jobs and just a moderate increase in mortgage rates would influence home sales.

"If we add 2 million jobs as expected in 2011, and mortgage rates rise only moderately, we should see existing-home sales rise to a higher, sustainable volume," says Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors chief economist.

If lenders returned to safe underwriting standards for credit-worthy buyers, there would be a greater rise in home sales.

Real Estate Outlook: Federal Reserve Promoting Recovery

Do You Agree With The Federal Reserve Plan to Buy $600 Billion In Bonds?

Image courtesy of realtorestateagent.com