Real Estate Listings

This week in real estate news, two stories on the same day (one Canadian, one American) focused on 'sky-high' debt and real estate prices as well as 'high in the sky' connections.

Sky-High Debt

Since 1999, TD Economics has been gathering Canadian data and creating special financial reports. Their latest edition gauges the financial vulnerability of households in regions across Canada. TD organized this report as a response to growing worries about high debt levels and the overall financial state of Canadian households. The index of financial vulnerability measures six key metrics of household financial position.

TD Economics assigned a weight to each metric based on its perceived importance. The metrics include debt-to-income ratio (combined total of mortgages, lines of credit, and additional loans as a percentage of personal disposable income), debt service (percentage of income), and the proportion of households with a debt service ratio of 40% or more. The index is not a predictor. Yet it tries to determine which region would be most vulnerable financially if faced with an economic shock.

The report considers circumstances such as a rise in unemployment or interest rates as well as a housing downturn. The report noted increasing vulnerability across Canada but no sign of a household debt crisis in the future. British Columbia showed as the most vulnerable province in case of economic shock. Actually, this result is not shocking to residents of that province.

British Columbia has been the most vulnerable every year since TD Economics started these reports. Alberta, Ontario, and Saskatchewan are ranked as second, third, and fourth most vulnerable followed by Quebec and the four Atlantic Provinces. Manitoba is the least vulnerable province.

Sky-High Housing Prices

Why is British Columbia the most vulnerable for economic shock?

Sky-high prices are part of the answer to B.C.'s vulnerability. As well, the province's household debt-to-income ratio is 160.5% - way above the Canadian average of 127%. In addition, British Columbia is the only province to have a negative savings rate. Every available dollar is directed toward mortgage, additional debt, or living costs.

B.C. most vulnerable to economic downturn TD report Debt-to-income ratio high

Sky-high real estate makes B.C. most vulnerable to shocks: TD

Sky-High Real Estate Prices

In yet another February 9 news story, there was talk about 'sky-high' real estate prices with a 'high in the sky' connection.

Chesley Sullenberger, the pilot touted as a hero for landing his plane safely on the Hudson River, and his wife, Lorraine, are accusing a bank official and a real estate broker of overinflating a purchase price. In 2002, the couple bought a building in Paradise, Northern California, for $935,000. Sullenberger and his wife claim that the price was far above market value.

The suit requests that the original loan be nullified and the couple reimbursed for alleged overpayments. The real estate broker, Cherie Huillade, claims that the appraisal was an accurate representation. If mediation fails, a trial is set for September.

Hudson pilot Sully sues over real estate deal

Do You Have Any 'Sky-High' Real Estate Stories?

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Everyone knows that neighborhoods affect real estate values. When it comes to property values, location, location, location, seems to be a true statement. ZIP codes matter in the real estate game.

Positive and Negative Factors

Living close to a beach or residing in the trendy part of town can be considered a plus. Having a home in a flood zone or near major traffic will not be viewed in such a favorable light. The market value of your home will reflect the location. Your neighborhood can affect property values in a positive or negative manner.

Generally, people can agree on whether specific factors are good or bad for real estate values. Usually, the decision does not require much thought. A high crime neighborhood harms real estate values. Being voted 'the city's best neighborhood' would be an asset.

Confusing Factors

Sometimes though it can be difficult to decide whether a factor is a benefit or a detriment to a neighborhood. Even the official spin on the story can be confusing for homeowners. For example, wind turbines are an addition to a neighborhood that can cause intense debate.

Of course, most homeowners will never be faced with decisions about wind turbines in their neighborhood. Yet for those homeowners who encounter this circumstance, the situation can be confusing on many levels. Of course, environmentally-conscious homeowners can recognize the green benefits.

Be Green or Be Gone

Questions surface, however, even for the 'greenest' homeowner. Do I want the wind turbines in my neighborhood? How will they affect the look of the area? How will they affect my property values? On the other hand, isn't a green project a positive development for a neighborhood?

Looking for answers can be as turbulent as the wind itself. Green groups will welcome the development. Other parties will worry about the possibility of the turbines causing harm to birds. Health associations could be concerned about possible health risks associated with living too close to wind turbines.

The municipality in question might be pleased with the extra revenues. The company in charge of the turbines will claim that there is no negative effect on real estate values. Will wind turbines be an advantage or disadvantage to a neighborhood?

Sometimes it is not so easy to figure out how a factor is going to influence a neighborhood. Most likely, a homeowner's individual position will be determined by one's own values and the information at their disposal. People will be forced to debate issues such as green vs. aesthetics, revenues vs. animal protection, and much more.

Real Estate Values

In the meantime, how would wind turbines affect real estate values? The answers to that question are a mixed lot. Yet the National Association of Realtors has recognized that the issue is of utmost importance to many homeowners. The association has organized a wealth of resources on the topic. There were enough wind turbines in operation in the U.S. at the end of 2009 to generate electricity to power 10 million homes.

Field Guide to Wind Farms and their Effect on Property Value

Will Wind Turbines Affect Property Values?

Do You Think Wind Turbines Would Affect Real Estate Values?

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The football team whose city has the most commercial real estate vacancies will win the Super Bowl. That is the prediction of Roger Staubach who led the Dallas Cowboys to two Super Bowl victories in 1972 and 1978. At present, Staubach is the Americas executive chairman for Jones Lang LaSalle - a global financial and professional services company specializing in real estate. Based on his expertise and experience in sports and property, the former-football-player-turned real-estate-executive stands by his belief.

“As a student of both football and commercial real estate, I can tell you that this vacancy rate hypothesis is absolutely the real deal. When it comes to picking a winner, you can throw everything else out the window,” says Roger Staubach, the Americas executive chairman for Jones Lang LaSalle.

Social and Economic Impact

Staubach and his son Jeff (a senior vice president at Jones Lang LaSalle) have been blogging about Super Bowl XLV and throwing a bit of real estate into the mix. Whether or not you give credence to the prediction, the Super Bowl does have a social and economic impact on the city that holds the event. Actually in 2010, the Staubach team launched "Countdown to the Super Bowl: The Economic and Social Impacts for North Texas." Staubach chaired the bid to hold the event in North Texas.

Financial Giant

Jones Lang LaSalle has stayed in the background as Staubach shares his predictions. The global financial firm has not offered any explanation about the connection between commercial real estate and Super Bowl wins. Of course, real estate predictions can be based on anything from a crystal ball to empirical research. Yet it is doubtful that Jones Lang LaSalle favors the crystal ball method. The professional services company is more the 'trends and statistics' type who would favor scientific methods.

Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels handles major financial announcements. The group forecast the 2011 deal volume (US $13 billion) in the Americas. The team figured out that REITs would be among the most active buyers with total volume for 2010 expected to be US $10.5 billion.

Winning Prediction

Not surprisingly, Jones Lang LaSalle has not weighed in to any great extent on the 'winning' prediction. Apparently though, the company has no objection to their executive chairman for the Americas claiming that his prediction is the "real deal." Maybe Jones Lang La Salle and Roger Staubach are smart enough to know that they are the winners getting the real deal.

We can predict that the 'prediction' is great publicity. According to the NFL, 65% of Super Bowl attendees are corporate executives. The group could include executives who might buy office space in the city or even relocate their headquarters. After these predictions, they will remember the names of Roger Staubach and Jones Lang LaSalle.

Who Will Win The Super Bowl?

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers Sunday - February 6, 2011

According to Staubach's theory, the Green Bay Packers will win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Green Bay's commercial vacancy rate is 18.9% but Pittsburgh has one of the lowest office vacancy rates in the US – just 12.1%.

And Yet Another Interesting Fact…

Since 2002, almost two thirds of Super Bowl wins have gone to the city with the most office space vacancies.

Super Bowl winner predicted by analyzing commercial real estate vacancy rates

Who Do You Think Will Win Super Bowl XLV?

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2011 is shaping up to be the "Year of The Landlord." As many people face the winter winds, we are reminded of a wise old saying.

"It's an ill wind that blows no good." ~ John Heywood (1497-1580)

In the case of the winds of change in real estate, falling house prices and slow sales have challenged many sellers but benefited more than a few apartment building landlords. More people are choosing to rent but others can find no suitable alternative to apartment living. Everyone has their own reason for deciding to rent property rather than buy a home.

Rent or Own

Sometimes renting is the best choice for an individual. Indeed, many renters prefer the apartment lifestyle. After all, renting a luxurious NYC condo does not seem like such a bad deal. Even renting any apartment has its perks such as more flexibility in relocation and less maintenance responsibilities.

Of course, other renters would sooner own a home. Often foreclosure forces homeowners to become renters. Sometimes potential first-time buyers discover that they cannot afford the financial commitment of a home. The Federal First-Time Homebuyers' Tax Credit is no more and not everyone has an "angel investor."

Whether people choose to rent or have no other choice, landlords are gaining tenants. Banks and lenders are also smiling – especially if the apartment building owner had been previously under financial duress. Borrowing has become less expensive with low interest rates.

This effect is noticed with commercial real estate of all types. The low rates have a positive effect on borrowing for office buildings, retail outlets, and company warehouses. The apartment market, however, is the healthiest of the commercial categories – mainly because of cheap financing.

Investing in Apartments

Obviously, investors are interested in apartment buildings. Actually, 'flipping' properties is coming into vogue again. The practice of reselling quickly for profit is somewhat prevalent at all times.

Yet 'flipping' is as popular now as in earlier thriving economic periods. This practice can have its place - if done responsibly for the right reasons. Illegal flipping, however, is a different matter. It involves scams, disregard for others, and a goal of profit at any cost.

Higher Values

Apartment building values have risen to levels not seen since the middle of 2007. According to the brokerage firm Marcus & Millichap, values of apartment buildings rose 16% in 2010. Green Street Advisors, a research company tracking REITs, say that present values are now within 10% of their 2007 peak value.

Of course, apartment values in major centers such as New York and Washington, D.C., have shown signs of recovery since 2009. Currently, increasing apartment values can be seen in additional markets including Los Angeles and Seattle as well as other U.S. cities. At the end of 2010, TIAA-CREF paid $62 million for the 261-unit Newbury Commons in Stamford, Connecticut. According to Real Capital Analytics, this sale price was 65% more than the amount paid by Seaboard Properties in February 2009.

Apparently, even Las Vegas is seeing the high values. Keep in mind that Las Vegas was affected greatly by the economic downturn. Yet in December 2010, the Croix Townhomes complex in the Las Vegas Henderson suburb sold for nearly $20 million - $143,000 for each unit – a price even far above the national average. The 'apartment advantage' might be the start of the next big trend in investment property.

Housing Woes Fuel Apartment Surge

Will 2011 Continue To Be The "Year Of The Landlord?"

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Most likely, the majority of real estate predictions fall somewhere in the middle - based on more than a crystal ball and less than empirical research. Maybe there might be one or two people who put predictions out there without any thought. Yet most real estate predictions are the result of studying trends and statistics.

Accurate Predictions

Apparently, a few of these predictions can have a high accuracy rate. For example, the Globe and Mail has tallied the score for predictions made by Neil Downey, RBC Dominion Securities analyst. Downey offered five predictions for 2011. Before the end of January, three predictions have become reality.

The Globe and Mail's story is titled – "The real-estate crystal ball." Probably, careful observations are responsible for these impressive results. No crystal ball here; maybe though a little luck, too!

Which Correct Predictions Did The Analyst Make About Canadian Real Estate?

• Richard Baker, the New York investor who bought Hudson's Bay Company, is ready to close a $2-billion deal bringing Target Corp. into Canada.

• RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust is looking for funding of its acquisition plan as well as refinancing for outstanding debt. Recently, REIT hit the market with rate reset preferred shares and senior unsecured debt.

• Canada's commercial mortgage-backed securities market is making a rebound. Two major real estate companies are tapping the market for $206 million – the first deal of this type since 2007. 

As well, Downey predicted more TSX-listed REITs at the end of 2011 than the beginning and less equity raising activity. The Globe and Mail is waiting to see if these two predictions will come to light.

Core Predictions

Real estate predictions are a serious business. The real estate industry is at the core of an economy. Home buyers account for a huge percentage of economic activity. Commercial real estate involves three main categories - retail (stores, malls), industrial (factories, warehouses), and commercial (offices, multi-dwelling buildings).

Real estate transactions are handled by brokers and agents. Certain agents offer property management services to businesses. When entrepreneurs are doing well, real estate transactions experience an increase. In a poor economy, realtors help businesses to find the best location and affordable facilities.

Empirical Research

Empirical research (such as Plotkin 2002) has been conducted about the role of real estate in an economy. The "first major empirical nonfinancial ratio business success versus failure prediction model" was applied to the real estate industry in New England. The purpose of this study was to develop and test a nonfinancial model that would predict real estate business success or failure using the Lussier (1995) prediction model.

'Lussier' was selected for the study because it had been published in more journals than any other model. The study suggested that similar methodology be used to conduct studies in other parts of the US as well as in other countries. Real science here – far more than a crystal ball!

A Success Versus Failure Prediction Model for the Real Estate Industry

How Have You Arrived At Your Real Estate Predictions?

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Ok, Google fans, no need to panic, you can still search for everything though your favorite search engine. You can no longer search for real estate listings, however, on its Maps portal. Everyone can continue to find real estate websites and related content via Google. Maybe that's even how you found this blog!

Discontinued

Actually, interested parties can still find real estate listings on Google Maps - until February 10, 2011. After that date, everyone has to revert to their previous method of searching for property. Yet Google does not expect potential home buyers to be too upset with the loss of this service.

Despite the search engine's tremendous popularity, few people were using the real estate feature. Now the news about low usage might seem odd to many observers. After all, Google holds a dominant market position. Yet in their recent statement, the corporation acknowledged the reason behind the lack of response to real estate listings on Maps.

"We recognise that there might be better, more effective ways to help people find local real estate information than the current feature makes possible. We'll continue to explore this area, but in the meantime, Google offers other options to home-seekers." ~ Google Inc.

Tough Competition

As well, Google's response noted "the proliferation of excellent property search tools on real estate websites." There is much truth in that statement – at least real estate statistics point in that direction. A 2009 National Association of Realtors survey showed that 90% of modern home buyers use the internet in their property search. Buyers sift through photos and take virtual tours of properties in their preferred location and price range. Consumers make short lists for viewing based on their online observations.

Although Google is a force to be reckoned with, this corporation has competition. Yet in this instance, the presence is not Yahoo or another search engine. Google is forced to compete with quality real estate websites.

Indeed, it makes sense that real estate websites can challenge Google in this area. Expert realtors and industry leaders know real estate. There is truth in saying - knowledge is power.

Of course, Google executives are not shocked by this recent development. They knew the score going into the game. As well, officials in the real estate industry expected this result. Former REA chief executive Simon Baker mentioned the probability of failure in recent days as well as at the time of the original announcement about the venture.

"The issue is that it's hard, but not necessarily impossible, but the thing is you need to have a coordinated and thought-out approach. I think they had something partially thought out, but there were elements they didn't understand," says Simon Baker, former REA chief executive.

Revised Feature

Yet Baker thinks that a revised model could meet the needs of the consumer. To a certain extent, this venture was an experiment for Google – complete with experimental apps and programs. In reality, the elements of search with this feature were not as advanced as on popular property sites.

Bad Timing

Timing is a big deal in real estate. With Google's real estate feature, confusion cropped up about the status of the listings. Is this a current listing?

Up-to-the minute data matters in the real estate industry. It matters to the person conducting the search. Finally, the consumer's needs decided the fate of Google's real estate feature.

Friendly Realtors

Of course, do not count Google out of the real estate game. Such a powerful entity does not reach its present position by ignoring facts or not learning from failures. If Google does try again, they will have to convince the real estate industry that listing on their Maps portal will bring in more sales. Many leading realtors did not participate in this initial project. Maybe next time, Google Inc. will find what they were searching for in the real estate listings.

Real Estate Search

Just one question! Recently, Google bought the former Port Authority Building at 111 Eighth Avenue in New York City for $1.9 billion. Did they use their Maps feature to find the listing or did they search at a real estate website?

Google dumps real estate research on Maps

Would You Search For Real Estate Listings On Google Maps?

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